Senior Member
Registered: 07-21-02
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The odds they show on TV are based on unknow cards. They are not entirely correct. For example: Concerning a flush draw postflopp heads up.
Most people will say I have 9 outs, I have 2 harts and there are 2 on deck. That is how TV base their odds.
In tournament play generally there are 9 or 10 players at the table. thats 20 cards on the deal,3 burn cards. 23 cards are out before the flopp. 25% of the deck is harts, spades, clubs and diamonds. 44% of the deck is out preflopp. So probability says 44% of each suit may be dealt. ( 5.72 cards ) so probability says you won't have 9 outs you will have 6.28. Thats a differance of 2.72 cards. Your odds to make the flush is 13% per card. Thats isn't much better than turning over AA vs KK and needing to hit the set to win.
In my opinion the flush chase after the flopp isn't worth it unless you are connected and you have either an open end straight or a belly buster to go with it.
AK vs pocket 7's isn't a coin flip ( or a race ) either. AK drawing 6 live cards right ?? WRONG. Probability says 1.25 cards are out so that means 4.75 cards are live. 4.75/48 thats 10% to hit an ace or a King ( per card ) pre flopp thats 30% add in 5% for possibly connection up on broadway. Thats 65/35 VS any Pocket pair. Thats not as appealing as 49/51 as they so often show on TV.
But the new breed of holdem players have figured out they can't out play good players. They need to out flopp them. So now you see alot of suited or conected raggs taking out great players. Thanks to the misconception of the odds they show on TV.
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